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Indian award for Prof. Varshneya and associates for astrometeorological paper

Última modificación 06/11/2009 14:17

An award, namely "Sipani Krishi Anusandhan Farm Award 2009" was conferred by Trustees of Asian Agri-History Foundation, Secunderabad (India), for a Best Research Paper entitled "Forecasting and Validation of Rainfall for Barshi in Maharashtra Based on Astro-meteorological Principle of Rainfall Conception" authored by Prof. M.C. Varshneya (VC, AAU, Anand), Nanaji Kale (Executive Trustee, Shri Yogiraj Ved Vijnana Ashram, Barshi), Prof. V.B. Vaidya (Assistant Professor of Agril. Meteorology, AAU, Anand), Dr. Vyas Pandey (Professor and Head, Dept. of Agril. Meteorology, AAU, Anand) and Shri. P.V. Kane (Retd. Chief General Manager, NABARD, Mumbai and associated with Shri Yogiraj Ved Vijnana Ashram, Barshi M.S.) which was published in Asian Agri-History, 13(3):189-196.

An award, namely "Sipani Krishi Anusandhan Farm Award 2009" was conferred by Trustees of Asian Agri-History Foundation, Secunderabad (India), for a Best Research Paper entitled "Forecasting and Validation of Rainfall for Barshi in Maharashtra Based on Astro-meteorological Principle of Rainfall Conception" authored by Prof. M.C. Varshneya (VC, AAU, Anand), Nanaji Kale (Executive Trustee, Shri Yogiraj Ved Vijnana Ashram, Barshi), Prof. V.B. Vaidya (Assistant Professor of Agril. Meteorology, AAU, Anand), Dr. Vyas Pandey (Professor and Head, Dept. of Agril. Meteorology, AAU, Anand) and Shri. P.V. Kane (Retd. Chief General Manager, NABARD, Mumbai and associated with Shri Yogiraj Ved Vijnana Ashram, Barshi M.S.) which was published in Asian Agri-History, 13(3):189-196.

This award was adjudged by a selection committee that consisted of Drs PM Tamboli, IP Abrol and L. Falvey. The committee's recommendation was approved by the chairman Dr. Y.L. Nene after endorsement by 3 trustees (Drs SPS Beniwal, BL Agrawal and S.N. Nigam).

This research was carried out at Shri Yogiraj Ved Vijnan Ashram, Barshi (MS), under the guidance of Prof. M.C. Varshneya from 2003-04 till 2009. They found that the Rain Conception and Rain Delivery (RCRD) theory, as proposed in our ancient scripts like Brihat samhita of Varah Mihir, works exceptionally well for forecasting rainfall events at least 6 and half months in advance (i.e. 192 + 1 calendar days). Rainfall was predicted for Barshi for the years 2004 till 2009 and validated with actual rainfall. The results are in the Abstract below. This technique can be used successfully for predicting rainfall for local areas (Panchakroshi). It can be said with confidence that the ancient science of rainfall prediction works well for farming communities if studied in the light of today’s modern weather science (meteorology).

 

[Text above by V.B. Vaidya, edited by Kees Stigter.]

 

Forecasting and Validation of Rainfall for Barshi in Maharashtra Based on Astro-meteorological Principle of Rainfall Conception

1Varshneya, M.C. , 2Nanaji Kale, 3V.B. Vaidya, 4P.V. Kane and 5Vyas Pandey, Anand Agricultural University, Anand – 388 110, Gujarat

ABSTRACT

Rainfall prediction has prime importance in Agrarian country like India, wherein the agricultural production is solely dependent on the monsoon rainfall. Among various astro-meteorological methods for rainfall forecasting, the Antariksha method, which is based on the sky observation, is most popular. The observations of rainfall conception based on 16 symptoms taken for the period (approx. six months i.e. 180 days) between Ashwin Krishna paksha (dark half of Ashwin month i.e. Oct-Nov., 2003 to Vaishakh Pournima (April-May month of 2004) was used for daily prediction of rainfall during ensuing monsoon season of 2004 for Barshi, Dist. Solapur. Similarly the predictions for the monsoon season of 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 were made from rainfall conception observations. The analysis was done to find out the most important rainfall conception symptoms responsible for rainfall delivery. The analysis revealed that on an average for five years symptom number 1 i.e. observation of rainy clouds has the highest frequency of 82.9%, while the symptom number 4 i.e. Squalls has the lowest frequency (23.1%). It was also observed that the rainfall conception days were maximum (65 days) during 2005, while it was minimum (35 days) during 2007 indicating lower number of rain events during monsoon season of 2007.

The average skill score for June, July, August, September and October months were 73.3, 79.2, 75.5, 79.3 and 86.4% respectively. The yearly average skill score was 75.2, 77.8, 87.6, 74.4 and 78.8% for the years 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008 respectively. The overall average skill score for rainfall prediction was 78.8%. The average HK coefficient was 0.6. Thus, it can be concluded that rainfall conception observations can be used successfully for rainfall prediction for that locality.

1Vice-Chancellor, Anand Agricultural University, Anand, 3 Asstt. Professor, Dept. of Agricultural Meteorology, AAU, Anand, 5Professor and Head, Dept. of Agricultural Meteorology, AAU, Anand, 2 and 4 Astro-meteorologist and Vedic Expert, Barshi, Dist. Solapur (MS).

 

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