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Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Last modified January 19, 2015 09:51

Environmental Research Letters Volume 10 Number 1 . Tomoko Hasegawa et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 014010 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014010. Scenarios for the risk of hunger in the twenty-first century using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways . Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi and Toshihiko Masui.

Shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are being developed internationally for cross-sectoral assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. These are five scenarios that include both qualitative and quantitative information for mitigation and adaptation challenges to climate change. In this study, we quantified scenarios for the risk of hunger in the 21st century using SSPs, and clarified elements that influence future hunger risk. There were two primary findings: (1) risk of hunger in the 21st-century greatly differed among five SSPs; and (2) population growth, improvement in the equality of food distribution within a country, and increases in food consumption mainly driven by income growth greatly influenced future hunger risk and were important elements in its long-term assessment.

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