Rainfall Forecast of Gujarat for Monsoon 2011 based on Monsoon Research Almanac
M.C. Varshneya, V.B. Vaidya, Vyas Pandey, A.M. Shekh L.D. Chimote, and K.S. Damle, Anand Agricultural University, Anand – 388 110, Gujarat.
Gujarat state receives annual rainfall of 828 mm in 35 rainy days with coefficient of variation of 50 %. There is large spatial and temporal variation in rainfall of the state (Anonymous, 2000). The low rainfall areas receiving less than 500 mm rainfall are comprised of Kutch district and western parts of Banaskantha and Patan district and parts of Jamnagar, Rajkot and Surendranagar districts. These are also characterized by arid climate. The high rainfall (> 1000 mm) receiving areas (Dang, Valsad, Navsari and Surat districts) are characterized as sub humid climate. The rest part of the state receives rainfall between 500-1000 mm and generally fall under semi-arid climate (Shekh, 1989).
Considering the abnormality of weather particularly rainfall during the monsoon, Anand Agricultural University, Anand has prepared almanac predicting district wise daily rainfall from monsoon 2007 to 2011 for beneficiaries for the farming community as well as planners. The observed and predicted rainfall was then analyzed for its validity.