Predicting and redressing the threat

Sullivan, M.S. , Swingland, I.R. Extinction risk: Predicting and redressing the threat. Biodiversity and Conservation Volume 15, Issue 6, June 2006, Pages 2009-2016.

Abstract - Predicting and redressing the threat of species extinction is not a success story. The science of estimating extinction rates and risk prediction is approached in a manner that is difficult to apply in the field, and yet current integrated ecosystem management programmes in many parts of the world, which are trying to place the conservation of species into sustainable community projects, need predictive tools for planning land use programmes. Such programmes involve US$100s of millions of multilateral and bilateral aid; many predicated on a site's biodiversity importance, the risks of extinction, sustainable extraction, production forms of land use, community livelihoods, water, and many others factors, but increasingly on ensuring that after the pump-priming funds are finished the programmes are both environmentally and economically sustainable (Swingland 2002, 2003, 2004; Swingland et al. 2003). [Swingland I.R. 2002. In: Swingland I.R., Bettelheim E.C., Grace J., Prance G.T. and Saunders L.S. (eds), Carbon Biodiversity, Conservation and Income: An Analysis of a Free Market Approach to Land-use Change and Forestry in Developing and Developed Countries. Philosophical Transactions Royal Society London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, London; Swingland I.R. (ed.) 2003. Capturing Biodiversity and Conserving Biodiversity: The Market Approach. Earthscan, London; Swingland I.R. (ed.) 2004. CO2 e biodiversità. Un approccio integrato a favore del clima e del patrimonio naturale. Edizioni Ambiente, Milano, Italy, 296 pp.; Swingland I.R., Bettelheim E.C. and Niles J.O. 2003. In: Swingland I.R. (ed.), Capturing Biodiversity and Conserving Biodiversity: The Market Approach. Earthscan, London] This involves predictions of 'what if?' what if laws are changed to prevent over utilisation and prevent 'The Tragedy of the Commons' where land ownership is vested in the state and people degrade the environment, and instead institute private land ownership. In places like China and much of the Far East, biodiversity is over-exploited as nearly all their species are used for food, medicine and construction purposes, and private land ownership in rural areas is rudimentary or absent. Since most species extinction is anthropocentric, research on species extinction needs to be more accessible and focussed on global problems.